·  KURDISH PARLIAMENT, MEETING IN PLENARY SESSION, RATIFIES
WASHINGTON AGREEMENT: TURKEY MULTIPLIES THREATS.  Since the plenary
session of the Kurdistan Parliament on 4 October, organised by the two
parties that control Iraqi Kurdistan [the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)
and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)] Turkey has been multiplying its
threats. Faced with a possible U.S. attack on Iraq, Turkey has been
hesitating between its traditional support for its American 'big brother'
and its even more traditional Kurdish nightmare. "The establishment of an
independent Kurdish State near our borders would be unacceptable" thundered
Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit on 6 October. "We will carefully
observe what happens in Northern Iraq and we will take the necessary
measures if the slightest negative change appears" he declared during an
interview on the TV8 television channel. In reply to the question whether
these 'measures' might include military operations Mr. Ecevit replied "I
hope not, but should it prove necessary, (this option) could, of course, be
envisaged".  Mr. Ecevit also commented circumspectly on the message from
the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, to the Kurdish Parliament,
welcoming the agreement between the KDP and the PUK and calling on them to
persevere on the road to peace. "I do not know the intentions behind this
message, but if this initiative was taken having in mind an objective of
creating an independent Kurdish State we will not welcome it nor consider
it as a friendly act. But I do not think that such were his intentions".
The Kurdistan Parliament unanimously ratified the 1998 Washington agreement
between the leaders of the KDP and the PUK, Massoud Barzani and Jalal
Talabani, who were both present at the session as well as Mrs. Danielle
Mitterrand, President of the Fondation France-Libertés and of CILDEKT, who
had come specially to express her welcoming of the peace agreement.

"The Kurds do not threaten the security and stability of their neighbours
and we are ready to give assurances to this effect" declared Massoud
Barzani in his speech to Parliament. For his part, Mr. Talabani stressed
that the support of the Kurds for a federal Iraq meant, "the safeguarding
the unity of Iraq, which the present Iraqi government has not done". The
KDP and the PUK both want to create a federal State of Iraq within which
the Kurds would enjoy wide autonomy. "Today is no less important than the
day, which saw the election of this Parliament" continued Mr. Barzani
before apologising for the victims of the murderous fighting between the
two rival organisations, which caused about 3,000 deaths. The leader of the
PDK thanked the American, British and Turkish governments for the air
exclusion zone imposed by Washington and London to cover Iraqi Kurdistan.

Turkey, that has maintained troops in Iraqi Kurdistan for several years,
proclaims its desire to maintain the territorial integrity of its
neighbour, but has no hesitations about claiming the right to oversee Iraqi
Kurdistan and the right to defend the interests of the Turkmen minority.
"Iraq's natural resources are not resources that can be ceded to any
particular element of the Iraqi people" recently stated the Turkish Foreign
Minister, Sukru Sina Gurel, according to whom the Kurds must be prevented
from appropriating the oil wells of the Kirkuk region. "When the time
comes, we will do as we did in Cyprus ­ take whatever we have a right to in
Mossoul and Kirkuk" stated even more forcibly the ultra-nationalist Speaker
of Parliament, Omer Izgi on 6 October. "Turkey should take the initiative
and its armed forces take control of the North of Iraq, more or less up to
the 16th Parallel" before any American military operations, opined, for his
part, the retired General and geopolitical expert Armagan Kuloglu. This
would "dam the flood  of refugees, guarantee the security of the Turkomans
and prevent the Kurds from becoming economically strong by taking over the
Mossoul and Kirkuk regions" he added, estimating that 30 to 40 thousand men
would be enough for the task. "Turkey will lose a lot if it does not take
an active part" in overthrowing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was also the
opinion of retired General Cevik Bir. He added "Turkey must prepare for an
operation that seems inevitable".

Last summer, the Turkish parliament, concerned by the attitude of the
European Union that it wanted to join, authorised private teaching and
radio-television broadcasting in the Kurdish language. This reform, which
is still being challenged, particularly by the ultra-nationalists, has not
yet been applied in practice.

In an interview with the daily paper Milliyet, published on 9 October,
Bülent Ecevit again described as "unacceptable" the  Kurdish projected
Constitution, stating that it "ignored" the central administration.  "This
project as it stands is unacceptable ( ) If this project, that ignores
Baghdad, is adopted  officially, Turkey will not accept it" he warned. "The
projected Constitution envisages a status (for Iraqi Kurdistan) close to
independence" according to Mr. Ecevit. The Turkish Prime Minister also
showed his irritation on 12 October at the proclamation of a "capital"
considering that things were going "too far". "Things have now gone too
far" declared the head of the government "We must discuss these questions
with greater precision, greater depth, with those concerned ­ and firstly
with the United States" stressed Mr. Ecevit, who considered that the
Kurdish "Constitution" was a "fraud" . "It is a truly worrying situation
that we cannot accept" he said again, promising "to get to grips with the
subject". "Up to now, this question has been more a matter of security (for
Turkey)" Mr. Ecevit considered "but this is no longer enough ­ we must
discuss it from a political point of view" with the United States.
Moreover, in its 13 October issue Milliyet carried this remark by Mr.
Ecevit as a front-page headline : "We are being push into war. Northern
Iraq is going beyond the limit. Turkey is being led to war against its will".
 

* EU WILL NOT OPEN  NEGOTIATIONS  WITH TURKEY AS  IT DOES
NOT MEET  POLITICAL CRITERIA.  Turkey "does not fully meet the
political  criteria" to start negotiations on membership with the European
Union, states a report of the Brussels Commission which was made public on
9 October. The European Commission will, as envisaged, propose widening the
E.U. to ten new countries in 2004  but postpones, to a later date, the very
sensitive problem of Turkey's membership. The Commission recommends that
the Fifteen welcome Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Malta and Cyprus. These ten countries
were designated at the Laeken European summit in 2001 as likely to complete
their negotiations for membership by the end of 2002 and, after
ratification of the treaties, to join the Union in time for the elections
for the European Parliament in June 2004.  The Commission's report contains
no surprises even if the inclusion of Cyprus as been questioned in recent months.

Turkey had hoped that the European Council (planned for December 2002 in
Copenhagen essentially to deal with the widening  of the Union) would set a
deadline for negotiations for its membership. But the Commission's report
does not mention any date. The European Executive limits itself to
encouraging Turkey to pursue the road of democratic reforms and recommends
granting it more substantial aid while awaiting its full conformity with
the criteria for membership. On 4 October Gunter Verheugen, the
Commissioner responsible for enlargement, had announced that the European
Commission would wait till after the 3 November Turkish General Elections,
so as not to influence the election campaign, before setting any date for
negotiations with Ankara. This 'political' decision will be left to the
Heads of State and Government of the Fifteen to make at their summit in
Copenhagen on 13 December. It further described as "absurd" reports in the
German press that Brussels wished to pay a billion Euros a year in aid to
Ankara rather than open negotiations for membership.

The report notes that the reforms voted by the Turkish Parliament in August
 "are of considerable extent" while stressing that they have "significant
limitations" particularly with respect to freedom of expression and of
association as well as religious freedom. The Commission deplores the
decision of the Turkish High Electoral Council to declare ineligible "the
leader of a major  political  party" as candidate  for the 3 November
elections ­ a clear allusion to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of the
pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP). This decision "is contrary
to the spirit of the reforms" voted toe months ago, notes the Union's
executive, which  also condemns the recurrent practice of torture in
Turkish prisons. Turkey must, to a greater extent, put the reforms into
practice  before engaging in negotiations for membership of the European
Union, states the Commission's report. The Commission also exhorts Ankara
to place its all-powerful military establishment under full civilian control.

In its report, the European executive also exhorts Turkey to support its
efforts for a peace settlement in Cyprus before the end of the year. But it
reaffirms that, in the absence of such a settlement the E.U. will, if
necessary, admit the part of the island under Greek Cypriot administration,
which is internationally recognised, leaving outside the secessionist
Turkish Cypriots whose self-proclaimed 'republic' is only recognised by
Turkey. The Commission promised that, in the event of an agreement, the
Turkish Cypriot part would receive considerable E.U. aid to help it catch
up with the economically more developed Greek Cypriot part.

The Commission stresses the progress made by Turkey to reform and
consolidate its economy in order to get closer to the E.U. But it points
out the still numerous deficiencies regarding restrictions on foreign
investments and considers that it is "capital to continue to throttle down
the strong and chronically high rate of inflation and maintain fiscal
discipline". To offset its failing to set a date for negotiations, the
Commission encourages Ankara "to advance the case in favour of its
membership" by pursuing the reforms and proposes that the total of European
aid to Turkey (at present 177 million Euros per annum)  be at least doubled
by 2006.

This absence of a date was immediately attacked by Deputy Prime Minister
Mesut Yilmaz, responsible for European Relations, according to whom the
Commission's report was "far from meeting the expectations" of his country.
"In general, Turkey has accomplished remarkable progress ( )  and more
especially in the last year". "Nevertheless, Turkey does not fully meet the
political  criteria" which  would allow the setting of a date for beginning
negotiations for formal membership.
 

* DEATH SENTENCE ON  OCALAN COMMUTED  TO  LIFE IMPRISONMENT.
On  3 October, the Ankara State Security Court commuted the death sentence
passed in June 1999 for "treason and separatism" on the chief of the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan. The next day, the Council
of Europe welcomed the Ankara State Security Court's decision in a
communiqué : "This most important legal decision, of the greatest political
importance, is the logical consequence of the legal and constitutional
changes consisting in the recent abolition of the death sentence in times
of peace and of aligning several fundamental aspects of Turkish legislation
with the standards of the Council of  Europe" declared the Chairman of the
Council's Parliamentary Assembly, Peter Schieder.

The Ankara State Security Court's decision follows the abolition of the
death sentence last August by the Turkish authorities in order to conform
with European criteria regarding Human Rights. A total of about twenty
people under sentence of death should have their sentences commuted to life
imprisonment. But the State Security Court's decision, even if it is just a
formality, holds great symbolic importance in the country.